We study the problem of selecting covariates for unbiased estimation of the total causal effect.Existing approaches typically rely on global causal structure learning over all variables, or on strong assumptions such as causal sufficiency - where observed variables share no latent confounders - or the pretreatment assumption, which limits covariates to those unaffected by the treatment or outcome. These requirements are often unrealistic in practice, and global learning becomes computationally prohibitive in high-dimensional settings.To address these challenges, we propose a novel local learning method for covariate selection in nonparametric causal effect estimation that avoids both the pretreatment and causal sufficiency assumptions. We first characterize a local boundary that contains at least one valid adjustment set whenever one exists for identifying the causal effect, and then develop local identification procedures to efficiently search within this boundary.We prove that the proposed method is sound and complete. Experiments on multiple synthetic datasets and two real-world datasets show that our approach achieves accurate causal effect estimation while substantially improving computational efficiency.

In this article we develop a new method for summarizing a ranking distribution, \textit{i.e.} a probability distribution on the symmetric group $\mathfrak{S}_n$, beyond the classical theory of consensus and Kemeny medians. Based on the notion of \textit{local ranking median}, we introduce the concept of \textit{consensus ranking distribution} ($\crd$), a sparse mixture model of Dirac masses on $\mathfrak{S}_n$, in order to approximate a ranking distribution with small distortion from a mass transportation perspective. We prove that by choosing the popular Kendall $τ$ distance as the cost function, the optimal distortion can be expressed as a function of pairwise probabilities, paving the way for the development of efficient learning methods that do not suffer from the lack of vector space structure on $\mathfrak{S}_n$. In particular, we propose a top-down tree-structured statistical algorithm that allows for the progressive refinement of a CRD based on ranking data, from the Dirac mass at a Kemeny median at the root of the tree to the empirical ranking data distribution itself at the end of the tree's exhaustive growth. In addition to the theoretical arguments developed, the relevance of the algorithm is empirically supported by various numerical experiments.

Backdoor and data poisoning attacks can achieve high attack success while evading existing spectral and optimisation based defences. We show that this behaviour is not incidental, but arises from a fundamental geometric mechanism in input space. Using kernel ridge regression as an exact model of wide neural networks, we prove that clustered dirty label poisons induce a rank one spike in the input Hessian whose magnitude scales quadratically with attack efficacy. Crucially, for nonlinear kernels we identify a near clone regime in which poison efficacy remains order one while the induced input curvature vanishes, making the attack provably spectrally undetectable. We further show that input gradient regularisation contracts poison aligned Fisher and Hessian eigenmodes under gradient flow, yielding an explicit and unavoidable safety efficacy trade off by reducing data fitting capacity. For exponential kernels, this defence admits a precise interpretation as an anisotropic high pass filter that increases the effective length scale and suppresses near clone poisons. Extensive experiments on linear models and deep convolutional networks across MNIST and CIFAR 10 and CIFAR 100 validate the theory, demonstrating consistent lags between attack success and spectral visibility, and showing that regularisation and data augmentation jointly suppress poisoning. Our results establish when backdoors are inherently invisible, and provide the first end to end characterisation of poisoning, detectability, and defence through input space curvature.

Accurate Hessian spectra of foundation models have remained out of reach, leading most prior work to rely on small models or strong structural approximations. We show that faithful spectral analysis of the true Hessian is tractable at frontier scale. Using shard-local finite-difference Hessian vector products compatible with Fully Sharded Data Parallelism, we perform stochastic Lanczos quadrature on open-source language models with up to 100B parameters, producing the first large-scale spectral density estimates beyond the sub-10B regime. We characterize the numerical behavior of this pipeline, including finite-difference bias, floating-point noise amplification, and their effect on Krylov stability in fp32 and bf16, and derive practical operating regimes that are validated empirically. We further provide end-to-end runtime and memory scaling laws, showing that full-operator spectral probing incurs only a modest constant-factor overhead over first-order training. Crucially, direct access to the Hessian reveals that widely used block-diagonal curvature approximations can fail catastrophically, exhibiting order-one relative error and poor directional alignment even in mid-scale LLMs. Together, our results demonstrate that foundation-model Hessian spectra are both computable and qualitatively misrepresented by prevailing approximations, opening the door to principled curvature-based analysis at scale.

We present a framework using variational inference with normalizing flows (VI-NFs) to generate proposals of reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) for efficient trans-dimensional Bayesian inference. Unlike transport reversible jump methods relying on forward KL minimization with pilot MCMC samples, our approach minimizes the reverse KL divergence which requires only samples from a base distribution, eliminating costly target sampling. The method employs RealNVP-based flows to learn model-specific transport maps, enabling construction of both between-model and within-model proposals. Our framework provides accurate marginal likelihood estimates from the variational approximation. This facilitates efficient model comparison and proposal adaptation in RJMCMC. Experiments on illustrative example, factor analysis and variable selection tasks in linear regression show that TRJ designed by VI-NFs achieves faster mixing and more efficient model space exploration compared to existing baselines. The proposed algorithm can be extended to conditional flows for amortized vairiational inference across models. Code is available at https://github.com/YinPingping111/TRJ_VINFs.

Early detection and characterization of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, remain critical for effective clinical response and public-health planning. The global availability of large-scale viral sequence data presents significant opportunities for computational analysis; however, existing approaches face notable limitations. Phylogenetic tree-based methods are computationally intensive and do not scale efficiently to today's multi-million-sequence datasets. Similarly, current embedding-based techniques often rely on aligned sequences or exhibit suboptimal predictive performance and high runtime costs, creating barriers to practical large-scale analysis. In this study, we focus on the most prevalent SARS-CoV-2 lineages associated with the spike protein region and introduce a scalable embedding method that leverages hashing to generate compact, low-dimensional representations of spike sequences. These embeddings are subsequently used to train a variety of machine learning models for supervised lineage classification. We conduct an extensive evaluation comparing our approach with multiple baseline and state-of-the-art biological sequence embedding methods across diverse metrics. Our results demonstrate that the proposed embeddings offer substantial improvements in efficiency, achieving up to 86.4\% classification accuracy while reducing embedding generation time by as much as 99.81\%. This highlights the method's potential as a fast, effective, and scalable solution for large-scale viral sequence analysis.

Traditional feature engineering approaches for molecular sequence classification suffer from sparsity issues and computational complexity, while deep learning models often underperform on tabular biological data. This paper introduces a novel topological approach that transforms molecular sequences into images by combining Chaos Game Representation (CGR) with Rips complex construction from algebraic topology. Our method maps sequence elements to 2D coordinates via CGR, computes pairwise distances, and constructs Rips complexes to capture both local structural and global topological features. We provide formal guarantees on representation uniqueness, topological stability, and information preservation. Extensive experiments on anticancer peptide datasets demonstrate superior performance over vector-based, sequence language models, and existing image-based methods, achieving 86.8\% and 94.5\% accuracy on breast and lung cancer datasets, respectively. The topological representation preserves critical sequence information while enabling effective utilization of vision-based deep learning architectures for molecular sequence analysis.

Crisis classification in social media aims to extract actionable disaster-related information from multimodal posts, which is a crucial task for enhancing situational awareness and facilitating timely emergency responses. However, the wide variation in crisis types makes achieving generalizable performance across unseen disasters a persistent challenge. Existing approaches primarily leverage deep learning to fuse textual and visual cues for crisis classification, achieving numerically plausible results under in-domain settings. However, they exhibit poor generalization across unseen crisis types because they 1. do not disentangle spurious and causal features, resulting in performance degradation under domain shift, and 2. fail to align heterogeneous modality representations within a shared space, which hinders the direct adaptation of established single-modality domain generalization (DG) techniques to the multimodal setting. To address these issues, we introduce a causality-guided multimodal domain generalization (MMDG) framework that combines adversarial disentanglement with unified representation learning for crisis classification. The adversarial objective encourages the model to disentangle and focus on domain-invariant causal features, leading to more generalizable classifications grounded in stable causal mechanisms. The unified representation aligns features from different modalities within a shared latent space, enabling single-modality DG strategies to be seamlessly extended to multimodal learning. Experiments on the different datasets demonstrate that our approach achieves the best performance in unseen disaster scenarios.

Automatically synthesizing verifiable code from natural language requirements ensures software correctness and reliability while significantly lowering the barrier to adopting the techniques of formal methods. With the rise of large language models (LLMs), long-standing efforts at autoformalization have gained new momentum. However, existing approaches suffer from severe syntactic and semantic errors due to the scarcity of domain-specific pre-training corpora and often fail to formalize implicit knowledge effectively. In this paper, we propose AutoICE, an LLM-driven evolutionary search for synthesizing verifiable C code. It introduces the diverse individual initialization and the collaborative crossover to enable diverse iterative updates, thereby mitigating error propagation inherent in single-agent iterations. Besides, it employs the self-reflective mutation to facilitate the discovery of implicit knowledge. Evaluation results demonstrate the effectiveness of AutoICE: it successfully verifies $90.36$\% of code, outperforming the state-of-the-art (SOTA) approach. Besides, on a developer-friendly dataset variant, AutoICE achieves a $88.33$\% verification success rate, significantly surpassing the $65$\% success rate of the SOTA approach.

This paper introduces KANFormer, a novel deep-learning-based model for predicting the time-to-fill of limit orders by leveraging both market- and agent-level information. KANFormer combines a Dilated Causal Convolutional network with a Transformer encoder, enhanced by Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs), which improve nonlinear approximation. Unlike existing models that rely solely on a series of snapshots of the limit order book, KANFormer integrates the actions of agents related to LOB dynamics and the position of the order in the queue to more effectively capture patterns related to execution likelihood. We evaluate the model using CAC 40 index futures data with labeled orders. The results show that KANFormer outperforms existing works in both calibration (Right-Censored Log-Likelihood, Integrated Brier Score) and discrimination (C-index, time-dependent AUC). We further analyze feature importance over time using SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations). Our results highlight the benefits of combining rich market signals with expressive neural architectures to achieve accurate and interpretabl predictions of fill probabilities.